Paulette may hit Bermuda as hurricane, while tropical storm may form in Gulf of Mexico

5:30 p.m. — Tropical depression forms near Florida, predicted to become tropical storm

Tropical Depression 19 formed midway between Andros Island, The Bahamas and the Florida Straits as of 5 p.m. eastern. The system is expected to remain a depression, the precursor to a tropical storm, with maximum sustained winds of 35 mph as its center moves over South Florida Friday night into early Saturday. A tropical storm watch was posted roughly from Biscayne Bay to West Palm Beach, Fla., including Miami and Fort Lauderdale.

The system will bring heavy downpours and thunderstorms along with locally gusty winds before emerging over the eastern Gulf of Mexico on Sunday. The National Hurricane Center is forecasting the tropical depression to become Tropical Storm Sally, and approach hurricane strength before making landfall along the Mississippi or Louisiana coastline on Tuesday.

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“Dangerous impacts from storm surge, wind, and heavy rainfall will be possible along the Gulf Coast from the Florida Panhandle to southeastern Louisiana,” wrote the National Hurricane Center.

Original article from Friday morning

The peak of hurricane season is here, and with it multiple tropical threats for the United States, Bermuda and parts of the Caribbean. Two named storms and four areas to watch are crowding the Atlantic, with multiple disturbances set to track through the Gulf of Mexico as other problematic tropical waves emerge off Africa.

Paulette and Rene were named over the holiday weekend, the former expected to target Bermuda on Monday as a Category 1 or 2 hurricane. The National Hurricane Center warns that Bermuda’s “risk of strong winds, storm surge, and heavy rainfall … continues to increase.”

NOAA’s new hurricane outlook shows so many storms, we may have to turn to the Greek alphabet

Meanwhile, a newly-formed tropical depression is eyeing the Gulf of Mexico. The eastern of the pair is slated to develop some, potentially into a tropical storm, before bringing heavy rainfall to portions of the central Gulf Coast next week.

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Perhaps the most attention-grabbing for the Lower 48 is a wave off the coast of Africa, which the National Hurricane Center estimates has a 90 percent likelihood of developing.

The tropics remain active as NHC is monitoring 4 disturbances that have development potential over the next 5 days. A system in the eastern tropical Atlantic has a high chance of development, while two other systems have a medium chance. Get the latest at https://t.co/tW4KeGdBFb pic.twitter.com/1D3hZtXfpq

With only four names left on the standard 2020 Atlantic naming chart, convention dictates we will soon be naming storms after Greek letters once the traditional list is exhausted. It attests to the busy season, which has featured the earliest C, E, F, G, H, I, J, K, L, M, N, O, P and R names on record.

NOAA declares La Niña, which is likely to affect hurricane season and dominate winter

Hurricane season, which historically has peaked around Sept. 10, extends through Nov. 30 — though the atmosphere does not own a calendar. Suffice to say, there will be more named storms to come.

Tropical storm likely in Gulf of Mexico

A sneaky tropical disturbance was approaching the Gulf of Mexico from the east Friday, drifting westward across the Caribbean with heavy rain. Satellite imagery revealed a well-defined swirl, with robust thunderstorm activity and visible upper-level outflow. That evacuation of “spent” air, the exhaust of a storm, is a sign that further intensification is possible.

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There were few indications that the tropical wave would be pulled north, and it will instead probably trek nearly due west or just north of west toward southern Florida. Locations near and south of Florida State Route 70, including Miami, Fort Lauderdale, West Palm Beach, Fort Myers and Lake Okeechobee, could all experience a squally, rainy weekend, with a fresh breeze and a widespread two to three inches of rainfall.

On Sunday, the system will move into the gulf from the east, probably beginning to intensify as it churns west-northwest. The National Hurricane Center says the system has an 80 percent chance of developing into a tropical depression or named storm next week.

Down the road, it is unclear what areas would be most affected, but the northwestern gulf in particular should closely monitor this system.

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A second area in the Gulf of Mexico was also being monitored for development potential, but the system — assigned a 30 percent chance of making it — will probably drift southwest in the direction of Tamaulipas, Mexico, instead.

Paulette

Paulette had winds of 65 mph as it spun 810 miles east-northeast of the Leeward Islands on Friday morning. Whirling through the open Atlantic, the system appeared to be intensifying. But the system was a tad lopsided, its innards exposed as the bulk of its shower and thunderstorm activity flanked the center to the north.

On satellite, Paulette was exhibiting “convective bursts,” or explosive development of thunderstorms, indicating likely strengthening.

For the time being, wind shear, or a disruptive change of wind speed and/or direction with height, is preventing Paulette from fully taking advantage of its otherwise favorable environment. But that should change by Saturday, and Paulette is expected to make a run at hurricane strength this weekend. A close pass at Category 2 intensity is likely for Bermuda on Monday, though exact impacts will be determined by just how near the system tracks.

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In addition to strong winds, Bermuda could see between five and 10 inches of rainfall, locally more, if the core of Paulette passes over the island nation.

Paulette will weaken starting around the middle of next week as it curves out over the open ocean.

Rene

Rene was a tropical storm with 40 mph winds, out in the middle of nowhere in the Atlantic midway between the Lesser Antilles and the Cabo Verde Islands. Currently drifting to the northwest, Rene will probably strengthen to a high-end tropical storm this weekend before faltering early next week and beginning to diminish. Around that same time, Rene should make a sharp turn to the west.

Thunderstorm activity associated with Rene was struggling Friday morning, and its low-level center was somewhat removed from that storminess. Early in the day, it was entirely devoid of thunderstorms, the leftover swirl hardly meeting the definition of a tropical storm.

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But the National Hurricane Center was calling for “gradual intensification,” with conditions becoming less hostile for tropical storm sustenance by Sunday.

Rene will never threaten any land masses and should remain comfortably out at sea as what meteorologists call a “fish storm.”

African waves could pose long-range threat

The next system that could become problematic in the long term is a tropical wave centered a few hundred miles south of the Cabo Verde Islands on Friday morning. The National Hurricane Center has pegged it with a 90 percent chance of developing, and already it is exhibiting some broad spin on satellite.

It appears that this system should remain relatively well-behaved until the middle of next week, at which point strengthening will probably commence. The system appears poised to become at least a tropical storm, with many computer models predicting that it will attain hurricane strength by late next week.

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If it beats the system in the Gulf in its maturation, it would earn the name Sally.

More important, however, is where it will go. Initially, it appeared that high pressure over the Atlantic would suppress the fledgling storm farther south, causing it to recurve farther west and potentially impact land. But there is now a growing chance that the eventual storm may sneak out to sea instead, turning north around or before the time it approaches the Lesser Antilles late next week.

A faster-moving system would have a greater chance of continuing due westward and becoming problematic, while a slower system would dawdle long enough that evolving atmospheric steering currents would carry it out to sea. Bermuda could be affected in the latter scenario, though.

A second tropical wave on the heels of that one has a 40 percent chance of development, but conditions may work against it in the coming days. Regardless, heavy rain and breezy conditions are possible across Cabo Verde late in the weekend as the wave traverses the region.

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